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Perspicacity noun /pur-spi-kas-i-tee/
🔮 the quality of having a ready insight into things; shrewdness.

Every week, we toss a few questions over to someone in the insights community to get their perspective on the world of research.

This week we welcome Jocelin Lee, Senior Director of Consumer Insights at Bombas.

Read on as Jocelin reveals her past investigating white-collar crime, shares her journey towards coming around on qual, and celebrates her role as a storyteller.

In today’s issue, you’ll also read about:

🧠 Affective Forecasting
🧰 AI Transcription
💥 Experience-Stuff Pendulum

– Kurt

ps. Know a great insights leader who you think should be featured? Send them my way! Email me your recs, please & thanks.

💡 Inside Insights

Perspicacity: Who are you, what do you do, and how did you get there?

Jocelin Lee: It’s Jocelin here, and I lead the Consumer Insights team at Bombas! I’ve had a rather non-linear career journey, starting in forensic consulting investigating white-collar crime, before unexpectedly falling into market research via competitive intelligence at a TV service (from Severance to Floor is Lava, talk to me about TV any time). I spent over a decade working in tech or digital services before finally finding my way to physical products: the most comfortable socks, underwear and tees that also do good in the world :)

Perspicacity: How is the research & insights function structured at Bombas?

JL: Consumer Insights at Bombas encompasses both “Market Research” and “UX Research,” but as we researchers know, the lines can be quite blurry between the extremes of audience segmentation and usability testing. We have a small but mighty team that tackles a wide range of quantitative and qualitative research topics across the full organization (see below) and it keeps our lives reeeaaally interesting!

Perspicacity: What is a topic you’d love to find an excuse to research? Why?

JL: Broadway. The Tony’s were the other night and I sobbed through most of the show. The magic created through monumental, collaborative human excellence and endeavor which is then RE-created eight shows a week in front of a live audience is inexplicable and profound. (This is true even when the shows are awful). I would take any excuse to spend more time with it.

Perspicacity: Is there a key tool or resource you couldn’t live without?

JL: This is the crotchety and old school consultant in me speaking - but I absolutely cannot live without Excel (and on generous days I will accept Google Sheets). All other tools are fine and well, but I need my formulas, macros and my beautifully cleaned and structured datasets I can personally pivot for my soul to feel at peace. (This is not just professionally btw - I’ve got spreadsheets, trackers and dashboards for theatre, for vacations, for escape rooms - it just makes life BETTER.)

Perspicacity: When have you been undoubtedly wrong? How did you react?

JL: Never. I’m always right.

Just kidding. Related to the previous question, being the quantitative data nerd that I am, a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away I did not believe in the value of qualitative research.

It pains me to even type it.

But seeing expert moderators at work is an absolute art form, and I am repeatedly humbled each time we run a focus group or IDI sprint. Participants are insightful and interesting in the most unexpected ways. Without fail, they consistently offer me genuine moments of surprise and illumination.

Perspicacity: Anything else I should be asking you?

JL: Since you’re giving me free space to ramble, I shall take you up on this offer.

I know people like to say research is Switzerland and data is objective, and I sure repeated a lot of that early in my career - but I think we’ve come far enough in understanding explicit and implicit biases to know that simply cannot be true.

It’s important to acknowledge as researchers that we always have an agenda, and be honest with ourselves about what that is. There will always be company strategies that we agree or disagree with, and it is only human nature to want data to tell us the story we already believe. Only by being clear-eyed about the results we are rooting for (or against) can we then look at the data and ask whether our agenda is being confirmed or challenged. This also helps us tell better stories! And ultimately that's the true purpose I serve: I’m a storyteller who (hopefully) makes the companies I work for smarter and wiser.

Perspicacity: Thanks Jocelin!

🧠 Thought Patterns

Affective Forecasting is when you (or your research subject) predict your future emotional state, and can be split into four components:

1️⃣ valence (ie. positive or negative)
2️⃣ specific emotions experienced
3️⃣ duration
4️⃣ intensity

Humans, unskilled as we are at understanding emotions or predicting our futures, understandably have a tough time with something like Affective Forecasting. When we think about how we’ll feel about something in the future, it tends to be similar to how we feel in the current moment, which isn’t always representative of the truth.

The two components of Affective Forecasting most prone to bias are 3️⃣ duration and 4️⃣ intensity; usually in the form of overestimation.

“Looking through the crystal ball: Affective forecasting and misforecasting in consumer behavior” by Deborah J. MacInnis, Vanessa M. Patrick, C. Whan Park.

👆🏻👆🏻 that’s a great read about the impact of Affective Forecasting (or misforecasting) on consumer decision-making.

🧰 The Toolkit

Taking notes while trying to be an engaging moderator is tough. I usually rely on something like Otter.ai to automatically transcribe my interviews and groups.

It’s great because you can see live transcription if you’re recording in their platform, it’ll recognize different voices and tag them as such, and they have a freemium model if you’re not using it a ton. Also, they’ve recently added some integrations with Zoom, Google Meet, and Teams.

But since they’re not paying me, here are a few other solutions: Rev, Trint, and of course Descript.

⚡ As always, you can find my full toolkit here

💥 Observations & Provocations

The experience-stuff pendulum. I haven’t congealed this into an intelligent perspective yet, but it feels like the following has happened over the past couple years of consumerism:

Pre-2020 → Millenials are all about spending on experiences.

2020-2021 → COVID is here, lots of people are nesting and have excess $$, want to buy stuff but struggle because supply-chain issues.

Now → Companies over-corrected on the supply-chain issues, tons of stuff available but, now that the world is opening up, people are back to craving experiences.

👇🏻👇🏻 a few things to read or think about regarding the above.

NBC News reported:

Target is canceling orders from suppliers, particularly for home goods and clothing, and it’s slashing prices further to clear out amassed inventory ahead of the critical fall and holiday shopping seasons.

Kyla Scanlon talks about Target and Stagflation:

The economist asks “Could a shift from goods to services ease inflation?”:

Data published on May 27th showed that spending on goods fell in the year to April, and is now 9% above its pre-pandemic trend, down from a high of 16% last year. Spending on services is up by 7% in the same period, and is just 3% below pre-pandemic trends.

Some other observed evidence of this return to spending on experiences:

• Harry Styles has sold out all 42 shows for Love On Tour, including 5 additional shows each in NYC and LA. Spent a decent chunk of my morning recently helping to get tickets for my wife and sister-in-law. Success.

• The new Airbnb.

• More than half of Americans are planning to take a vacation this season, according to the U.S. Travel Association. More from Cassandra Daily.

• I’m probably not the only one who got an IG ad for Outside.io.

• … what else have you noticed?

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– Kurt

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Perspicacity noun /pur-spi-kas-i-tee/
🔮 the quality of having a ready insight into things; shrewdness.

Every week, we toss a few questions over to someone in the insights community to get their perspective on the world of research.

This week we welcome Paige Reckziegel who is Director of Insights & Brand Growth Intelligence at Estee Lauder Companies (ELC), supporting their recent acquisition, DECIEM.

Read on as Paige talks about empathy, divulges her secret source for beauty insights, and wonders about reality TV as catharsis.

In today’s issue, you’ll also read about:

🧠 Stereotype Content Model
🧰 Flyover Politics
💥 Redefined Success

– Kurt

💡 Inside Insights

Perspicacity: Who are you, what do you do, and how did you get there?

Paige Reckziegel: Hey there! I’m Paige Reckziegel, Director of Insights & Brand Growth Intelligence at Estee Lauder Companies (ELC). I recently moved into a new role leading support for DECIEM, a new(ish) acquisition into the ELC portfolio.

I fell into research + analytics accidentally - after I blindly applied to a summer internship on Craigslist! (Wow, I am really aging myself there!) From there, I worked at a few agencies, and then found my way over to Estee Lauder, where I helped establish digital insights capabilities into their flagship brand. From there, my scope has broadened to include more traditional consumer research.

While I fell into it by accident, my career in consumer insights feels very natural to me, as I feel I am a bit of an empath - always trying to understand people’s feelings, motivations, needs, and how I can help them. I play this role in my personal life, and then was able to pivot into it professionally.

Perspicacity: How is the research & insights function structured at ELC?

Paige Reckziegel: Being such a large organization, our insights function is quite large, spanning across 3 main divisions: consumer, category (e.g. makeup, skincare, fragrance), and then brand, where I am positioned. This way, I am able to distill down all of the information available to what is most relevant for DECIEM and their consumer. Within the brand team, I work closely with Product Marketing, Product Development, and Consumer Marketing - ensuring the consumer is at the forefront of our brand and product strategy.

Perspicacity: What is a topic you’d love to find an excuse to research? Why?

Paige Reckziegel: I definitely think there has been some research out there on this - but I would love to understand how and why viewing reality TV can be cathartic. I am a Bravo TV fan (no shame!) - and it is pretty amazing how watching a group of housewives argue over something can really help me wind down at the end of the day. So I’d love to dig a little deeper into that. 

Perspicacity: Is there a key tool or resource you couldn’t live without?

Paige Reckziegel: My network of friends + family! Beauty is a continuously evolving category, so I find I am constantly learning something new from them. I love hearing about the latest product they're trying, how they like it, how they came to find it, and why they chose this particular product out of everything available. When purchasing beauty, I feel like there is a paralysis of choice by default, so it’s interesting to really be able to distill down purchase decisions and behaviors. I learn so much from them! 

Perspicacity: When have you been undoubtedly wrong? How did you react?

Paige Reckziegel: Working in a global role is incredibly enlightening, but also very challenging. There was one particular study I conducted in a global market, where my stimuli lacked a proper cultural nuance, which completely skewed the results of the study. It almost made the findings pointless.

It was completely embarrassing - but I take it in stride knowing that a role in consumer insights is a role where you are never done learning. I think it was a big deal for about 48 hours and then we were on to the next project, so it became out-of-sight/out-of-mind quickly thankfully, but I definitely quadruple-check everything now (whereas I only triple-checked before!) 

Perspicacity: Anything else I should be asking you?

Paige Reckziegel: Not a question, but I should note for your audience that an added bonus of falling into this industry was that it led me to meeting you - my husband! How lucky is that!

Perspicacity: Thanks Paige! Guess our secret is out!

🧠 Thought Patterns

This week I’d like to introduce you to the Stereotype Content Model.

The concept was introduced in a 2002 paper authored by Amy Cuddy, Susan Fiske, Peter Glick, and Jun Xu, which recently won the SESP Scientific Impact Award “honoring the author(s) of a specific article or chapter offering a theoretical, empirical, and/or methodological contribution that has proven highly influential over the last 25 years.”

Here’s a run-through of the concept, adapted from a Twitter thread from one of the authors, Amy Cuddy, PhD.

The SCM hypothesizes that all group stereotypes form along two dimensions:

✅ competence
🔥 warmth

Many groups are stereotyped as 👆🏻high on one dimension and 👇🏻low on the other.

This moves away from the earlier conceptualizations of stereotyping and prejudice as one-dimensional (ie. love vs. hate, positive vs. negative, etc).

Distinct emotions differentiate the four competence-warmth combinations:

😔 pity = ⭕ + 🔥
🤢 envy = ✅ + ⭕
🤩 admiration = ✅ + 🔥
🫥 contempt = ⭕ + ⭕

For example…

😔 Groups stereotyped as low competence with high warmth elicit paternalistic/pitying prejudice.

🤢 Groups stereotyped as high competence w low warmth elicit envious prejudice.

🤩 Only groups that are stereotyped as both warm and competent (ie. in-groups and cultural reference groups) elicit admiration.

🫥 Groups stereotyped as incompetent and cold elicit contempt.

And here’s a visual representation of the emotional and behavioral outcomes of high and low competence and warmth stereotypes (stereotype content model & BIAS map; Fiske, Cuddy, & Glick).

🧰 The Toolkit

Sometimes it’s about a specific tool, vendor, or dataset. Other times it’s just about having your finger on the pulse of what’s happening in a part of the human experience that you’re not yet in touch with. 🕵️‍♀️

Writer Lyz Lenz recently launched Flyover Politics, a “Discord community for people in the Midwest to talk hot dish, Wisconsin old-fashioneds, and local politics.”

Seems to me that this could be a great way for non-Midwest researchers and marketers to get a better sense of what’s going on in the US between the coasts.

Anyone else have online communities that they’re a part of just for the purpose of painting a more nuanced picture of the people you’re researching?

⚡ As always, you can find my full toolkit here

💥 Observations & Provocations

How people define success and happiness in their lives is changing. Take a peek at this Fortune piece from a couple weeks ago:

“Americans are stepping off the ‘hamster wheel’ and redefining what success looks like.”

Something to keep in mind when we’re thinking about what motivates people. 🤔

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If you have a friend or colleague who would find this interesting, please be a pal and share.

– Kurt

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Perspicacity noun /pur-spi-kas-i-tee/
🔮 the quality of having a ready insight into things; shrewdness.

Every week, we toss a few questions over to someone in the insights community to get their perspective on the world of research.

This week we welcome Mike Keisman who leads Consumer Innovation & Insights at ECCO Shoes. Read on as Mike talks about having too many leftover questions, calls being wrong the most interesting part of the job, and implores that you take time to work abroad.

In today’s issue, you’ll also read about:

🧠 Emotional Granularity
🧰 Human Behavior Podcasts
💥 Goths x Recession

– Kurt

💡 Inside Insights

Perspicacity: Who are you, what do you do, and how did you get there?

Mike Keisman: Hey Kurt! Thanks for having me! I’m Mike Keisman, the head of Consumer Innovation & Insights at ECCO Shoes, based in Copenhagen, Denmark.

I started my career in the analytics & insights world at various NYC advertising agencies, where I met the incredibly smart host of this newsletter, Kurt, back at Carrot Creative/VICE Media/Virtue! Those were some fun times, right?

I fell into the world of analytics & insights, nearly accidentally. I’ve always been someone to question everything, find the problems in everything, and try to provide solutions to those problems. So, I guess insights work came naturally to me.  While originally in the data/analytics side of things, there simply weren’t enough answers that could be provided by simply analyzing numbers & performance. Too many leftover questions. I had to get deeper into the human psyche. This obviously led me to psychographic research, and I just had to know how mental, emotional & functional personality traits affect their physical behaviors.

About three years ago, I took a risk and made a move from my home in NYC to London for a behavior change project for VICE, which then eventually brought me to ECCO Shoes in Copenhagen.

Perspicacity: How is the research & insights function structured at ECCO Shoes?

Mike Keisman: Research & insights is new to ECCO. With 60 years of some of the best shoemaking, we relied heavily on gut feeling. But as consumers evolved, we needed to as well. So, I launched the new iteration of the function a year ago, when I started.

As a company that owns the entire value chain, from development to production, to distribution, marketing & sales, we have the opportunity to affect decision making & change in almost every part of the business.

We try to fit consumer insights into every single decision we make within our End-To-End development process. Whether it’s with research & development of new technologies, helping to design new shoes & products, creating optimal seasonal ranges, understanding how consumers react to our global marketing, regional market management/forecasting, and even in-store consumer behavior.

But I’m also realistic, and I’m not under the same impression as some researchers who think that every decision needs to be driven directly by an insight. We’re a part of the collaborative process, especially in the fashion world, one that straddles the art/science divide. We’re an input, in a long list of inputs, that should be taken and really thought about and assessed. Our goal is to accumulate all that we can understand from tons of different perspectives and make our decision-makers super informed. They’ll then naturally make smart decisions.

Perspicacity: What is a topic you’d love to find an excuse to research? Why?

Mike Keisman: The effect of music on decision-making. I think what we’re exposed to musically has a tremendous impact on how we behave and function, and it’s especially different from person to person.

Perspicacity: Is there a key tool or resource you couldn’t live without?

Mike Keisman: The best tool/resource I use at ECCO is WGSN, both their subscription platform & their bespoke mindset division. They are the best in the world in trend forecasting, consumer research & more, and I highly suggest everyone in fashion (and tons of other fields too) should use them. They’re absolutely brilliant over there.

Perspicacity: When have you been undoubtedly wrong? How did you react?

Mike Keisman: Oh, literally all the time. That’s the point of insight work, right? To make guesses which can either be proved right or wrong. Being told you were wrong is arguably the best and most interesting part of the job. Be bold with your hypotheses & be humbled by the truth.

Perspicacity: Anything else I should be asking you?

Mike Keisman: This is really more a piece of advice for all researchers & strategists out there. I highly, highly suggest that young insights professionals or anyone take some time to go work abroad if they can. One’s perspective on people, personalities & behavior really start to change when you begin to understand how other people live outside of your typical comfort zone. It’s enlightening.

It will make you a better people researcher in ways you’d never know. It’s been the most fulfilling thing I’ve ever done personally & professionally and I can’t recommend it enough.

Perspicacity: Thanks Mike!

🧠 Thought Patterns

Let’s face it, how we exist in the world is driven by our emotions. And so, if we—as researchers—seek to understand human behavior, we have to strive to unravel the tangled nest of colorful wires that is human emotion.

I won’t fully unravel things here, but I will share what I hope will be some useful concepts and resources.

The concept of Emotional Granularity suggests that “high emotional granularity is beneficial for coping with emotional experiences because it allows one to label their emotions more accurately and deal accordingly.”

Our ability to name these granular emotions is integral to our ability to differentiate between them. In the first episode of a podcast called More Than a Feeling (btw, great podcast about emotions), host ​​Saleem Reshamwala speaks with psychologist Tim Lomas about his Positive Lexicography project. Tim has created (& is still creating) an online index collecting untranslatable words related to feeling good from non-English languages.

Naming things and identifying them is a crucial part of the process. It’s like our maps are more accurate, and we can navigate our way around our lives in a better way.

Related to naming the nuances of emotion: In Brené Brown’s most recent book (and TV show), Atlas of the Heart, she and her team outlined 87 emotions and experiences that “define what it means to be human.”

Also in the More Than a Feeling episode mentioned above, Saleem speaks with developmental psychologist Ashley Ruba, who outlines another interesting emotion-related concept: the differentiation between Essentialist and Constructivist views of emotions.

Essentialist: all humans were born with the same set of emotions.
Constructivist: humans shape their own emotional experience based on past experiences.

Read Ashley’s full dissertation here. And you can read social scientist Ho Manh Tung’s perspective on this concept’s implication for parents here.

🧰 The Toolkit

Research tools and partners are integral to the work we do in the insights profession. Fact.

Also, fact: the content we consume can have an outsized impact on our ability to produce great work.

Here are a few smart podcasts about human behavior that you may want to consider subbing to:

I’ve also just discovered Kinsey Grant, and I’ve really been enjoying her podcast Thinking Is Cool.

⚡ As always, you can find my full toolkit here

🍽️ And in this case, it would probably be interesting to share my media diet

💥 Observations & Provocations

Offering up the below tweet sans commentary:

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If you have a friend or colleague who would find this interesting, please be a pal and share.

– Kurt

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Perspicacity noun /pur-spi-kas-i-tee/
🔮 the quality of having a ready insight into things; shrewdness.

Every week, we toss a few questions over to someone in the insights community to get their perspective on the world of research.

This week we welcome Lillian Smith who leads Global Consumer Strategy & Insights for Peloton. Read on as Lillian talks about serendipity bringing her to Peloton, reminisces on her time in the Blue Apron Test Kitchen, and touches on how brands change over time.

In today’s issue, you’ll also read about:

🧠 Mental Programming
🧰 Pocket Biases
💥 Deep Niche Expertise

– Kurt

💡 Inside Insights

Perspicacity: Who are you, what do you do, and how did you get there?

Lillian Smith: I’m Lillian; I’m a career researcher and I run Global Consumer Strategy & Insights at Peloton. I am an anthropologist by training, and started my career in women’s health research and non-profits, before moving into research on the agency side. I ended up going in-house with Blue Apron, where I ran consumer insights and user research, and then joined Peloton in 2019. I came into this role somewhat serendipitously - I missed out on a role at a company I really wanted to work for in 2016, and then years later the hiring manager recommended me for this role at Peloton. You just never know how things will work out!

Perspicacity: How is the research & insights function structured at Peloton?

Lillian Smith: My department sits within Marketing and services the entire org — media and brand measurement, brand strategy, product marketing, comms, creative, all of it. Our team is set up so that everyone is responsible for managing their key stakeholder relationships and respective roadmap, and in the aggregate, we are set up to ensure that the work we do ladders up to the biggest priority areas for the business.

We’re somewhat unusual in that unlike other research teams, our projects are not commissioned - we work very closely with leaders across the company, working collaboratively on how best to support them in meeting their objectives through research.  

Perspicacity: What is a topic you’d love to find an excuse to research? Why?

Lillian Smith: This is a throwback to my time at Blue Apron but, food! A lot of my focus there was on trying to understand how Americans prepare and enjoy meals and in turn, how our chefs and product team should design the user experience. It was fascinating work, with the added bonus that I got to cook and eat a ton. It was a lot of fun to combine my job and my hobby in that role, I still miss my Test Kitchen Tuesdays where I would go and work with the chefs to plan the menus; it was a blast.

Perspicacity: Is there a key tool or resource you couldn’t live without?

Lillian Smith: People resources yes, tools less so - you can do anything with the right team in place. There are a lot of tools out there, but they’re only as good as the people wielding them. There’s no substitute for smart, strategic, and thoughtful researchers! Without a great team you can’t do much of anything, so that’s always #1 for me.

Perspicacity: When have you been undoubtedly wrong? How did you react?

Lillian Smith: Remembering to always challenge your own bias and assumptions is a must. Whenever I find myself making too many assumptions, I always remind myself of this one time where I was CERTAIN a concept for a TV ad was going to flop in research. I was waiting to see how much consumers hated the idea and I just knew I would be vindicated for all the concerns I had raised with the internal team. In the end the results came back glowing, which was humbling to say the least. It also helped me see that the brand had changed - what might have worked well three years ago won’t necessarily work well today. You need to grow and change with your audience, and they’ll remind you of that - if you listen.

Perspicacity: Anything else I should be asking you?

Lillian Smith: Firstly, I love that you’re closing with my favorite final question in discussion guides, well done!

I guess I’m always curious to learn how people came to research, so maybe some other people out there are too. It’s an area where it can feel like there are many meandering paths, but the big revelation to me was that scientific research approaches could be applied to creative and lower-stakes topics like design and brand strategy. That’s ultimately what made me comfortable with the decision to leave public health and policy research to join Interbrand, and I’ve never looked back.

Perspicacity: Thanks Lillian!

🧠 Thought Patterns

The “layers of mental programming” from Geert Hofstede’s book ‘Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind’, originally published in 1991.

The landmark study of cultural differences across 70 nations, Cultures and Organizations helps readers look at how they think—and how they fail to think—as members of groups.

Symbols: jargon, clothing or hairstyle, brands

Symbols are words, gestures, pictures or objects which carry a particular meaning, only recognized as such by those who share the culture[...]

Heroes: community leaders, sports stars, company founders

Heroes are persons, alive or dead, real or imaginary, who possess characteristics that are highly prized in a culture, and thus serve as models for behavior [...]

Rituals: greetings, religious ceremonies, celebrations

Rituals are collective activities, technically superfluous to reach desired ends, but within a culture considered socially essential: they are therefore carried out for their own sake [...]

Values: defining what is evil vs good, abnormal vs normal, dangerous vs safe

Values are among the first things children learn—not consciously, but implicitly. Because they were acquired so early in our lives, many values remain unconscious to those who hold them. Therefore they can only rarely be discussed, or directly observed by outsiders. They can only be inferred from the way people act under various circumstances [...]

I don’t remember where I found this 2x2 (it’s not mine), but it takes look at those cultural elements on scales of visibility and centrality. Mapping them onto these quadrants demonstrates which elements are easy or difficult to change, and of course, that change could come from outside the group, but it could also come from within as an evolutionary change.

🧰 The Toolkit

Pocket Biases is a useful little tool for having “every cognitive bias in your pocket.”

Built by @buster using Glide (another useful little tool for building code-free apps).

⚡ As always, you can find my full toolkit here

💥 Observations & Provocations

I’m noticing this shift in expertise towards niche depth. Broader and more generalist expertise from polymaths like Dan Frommer (The New Consumer) or Web Smith (2PM Inc) is still fantastic, but there’s an obvious new crop with focused expertise.

• Food & Bev: Andrea Hernández (Snaxshot)

• Luxury: Ana Andjelic (Sociology of Business)

• Copywriting: Harry Dry (Marketing Examples)

• Retail: Steve Dennis (Remarkable Retail)

Thinking I should follow Andrea’s lead re: CaaS (Curation as a Service) and pull together a Twitter list of these folks if we find enough.

Anyone else on your radar with deep niche expertise?

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If you have a friend or colleague who would find this interesting, please be a pal and share.

– Kurt